The month of October does not promise anything good, at least in the first 3 weeks of trading.

The consecutive negative (Fig. 1) closures recorded are:
Daily: 2 consecutive negative daily sessions equal to the average and 7 closings away from the absolute values.

Weekly: 1 consecutive negative weekly session close to the average (2 consecutive negative weeks)

Monthly: 1 consecutive negative monthly session, close to the average (2 consecutive negative weeks).


As far as the “Maximum/Minimum Probability” (Fig. 2-3) is concerned, the data are discordant. The probability of forming a minimum in the first week is similar to that of the last week….as well as the probability of forming a maximum in the month. It is more likely to form a minimum in the first two weeks with a return of strength in the last week of October. Confirmed also by seasonality.

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

At the technical level, the break down of the symmetrical triangle, after the pull back of the last sessions, suggests new push-down immediately, at least up to the first minimum target positioned in the 1700$ zone (attention to possible over-extensions up to 1660$). From these levels the prices will necessarily have to react in order not to lose strength in the medium term.

Fig. 4

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