The month of October does not promise anything good, at least in the first 3 weeks of trading.
The consecutive negative (Fig. 1) closures recorded are:
– Daily: 2 consecutive negative daily sessions equal to the average and 7 closings away from the absolute values.
– Weekly: 1 consecutive negative weekly session close to the average (2 consecutive negative weeks)
– Monthly: 1 consecutive negative monthly session, close to the average (2 consecutive negative weeks).
As far as the “Maximum/Minimum Probability” (Fig. 2-3) is concerned, the data are discordant. The probability of forming a minimum in the first week is similar to that of the last week….as well as the probability of forming a maximum in the month. It is more likely to form a minimum in the first two weeks with a return of strength in the last week of October. Confirmed also by seasonality.
At the technical level, the break down of the symmetrical triangle, after the pull back of the last sessions, suggests new push-down immediately, at least up to the first minimum target positioned in the 1700$ zone (attention to possible over-extensions up to 1660$). From these levels the prices will necessarily have to react in order not to lose strength in the medium term.