Let’s look at some statistics.
What do these two pie charts tell us?
The first one on the left shows that primary aluminum had a 45.55% probability to score a maximum in the first week of September (1/9/2020 maximum at 1823.50$/ton).
The second on the right tells us that there is 46.5% to record a minimum in the fourth/last week of September.
We should expect in the last 8 trading days a price of the primary at least below area 1766 $/mt, about 1.83% below current levels.
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