Zinc has been moving in a down trend since February 2018 with an additional breakdown recorded as the covid-19 pandemic continues. The decrease therefore developed from the highs of February 2018 ($3600) reached at the beginning of March quota $1750, approaching the upward trend start from the2008 lows, with a collapse therefore of about 51%.

What do the statistics indicate about the past?

Analyzing the seasonality (chart 1.) with data available since 1988, it is possible to observe how in the month of May, statistically the prices have moved in a downward trend, with reactions in the first days of the month (first week) and then will leave room for decisive sinkings in the following weeks.

Chart 1.

Observing more in detail (chart 2.) the prices, in 50% of the cases detected, statistically tend to form the maximums in the first week of trading (High), percentage well above 20% (second week), 17% (third week), 13% (fourth week).

Chart 2.

As far as minimums are concerned, 33% of cases are formed in the last week of May compared to 27% (first week), 13% (second week), 27% (third week).

What targets for May

Considering that the historical monthly volatility in the month of May (chart 3.) has oscillated from the maximum of almost 20% (2006) to the minimum of 2.64% (1992) with a historical monthly average at 6.60%, zinc prices could oscillate in a price range between 2050$ and 1820$ (chart 4.).

Chart 3.

Chart 4.

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