Covid-19 knocks down Chinese GDP 
China’s GDP fell by 6.8% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. The figure, among the most expected to monitor the damage of the coronavirus on the global economy, has arrived, and is worse than expected by analysts who, on average, had predicted a contraction of -6%. The thud is record-breaking, at least since 1992. The collapse was inevitable, just as it will be inevitable in the case of the other economies of the world. Since the beginning of the year, industrial production has collapsed by 8.4% on an annual basis (however, better than the expected -10%); retail sales have fallen by 19% (worse than the estimated -12.5%); investments in fixed assets have fallen by -16.1% (worse than the expected -15%).

Collapse of vehicle registration in Europe
Vertical collapse of car registrations in Europe in March, due to coronavirus and subsequent lockdown. According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (Acea), last month only a little more than 567 thousand cars were registered in the European Union, a decrease of 55.1% compared to March 2019. If you look at the wider area EU + EFTA + UK the decline was 51.8% with 853 thousand registrations in total. This disastrous result is entirely due to the coronavirus emergency, which has entered a European car market that was already weak in the first two months of the year, but had nevertheless contained losses in 7.2%. In the first quarter of the year, the balance sheet (EU+Efta+Uk) is -26.3%.

Predictions of the effects of the Great Lockdown on the World Economic Outlook and the Fiscal Monitor
Global GDP will contract by 3% this year, before recovering by 5.8% in 2021. The recession forecast by the IMF remains more severe than that triggered by the 2008 financial crisis.
The big lockdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic and the related COVID-19 disease will cause a fall in Italian GDP of -9.1% in 2020. The Italian GDP should then, according to the Washington institution, recover in 2021, marking a recovery of 4.8%. The levels at which the Italian deficit-GDP and debt-GDP will rise are shivering. In 2020, Italy’s deficit-GDP ratio will rise to 8.3% of GDP due to the expenses that the State will incur to stem the effects of the coronavirus on the economy. The debt-GDP ratio will jump to 155.5%.
China’s GDP will rise by just 1.2% this year, before recovering by 9.2% in 2021.
The gross domestic product of the United States will fall by 5.9% in 2020, before recovering by 4.7% in 2021. Moreover, the IMF’s own Fiscal Monitor – published at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings – shows that the US deficit is expected to reach 15.4% in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts a drop in Germany’s GDP in 2020 of -7%. Also expected to contract this year the GDP of Spain -8% and France -7.2%. The Spanish GDP will then rise by 4.3% in 2021, the French GDP by 4.5% and the German GDP by 5.2%. Looking at the other economies, Japan’s GDP will fall by 5.2% this year, before rising by 3% in 2021; the United Kingdom’s GDP will contract by 6.5%, then recover by 4%; Canada’s GDP will fall by 6.2% and then advance by 4.2%. Russia’s GDP will fall by 5.5% before recovering by 3.5%.


COVID-19: Trends in Italy and Lombardy

Further improvements in data on health facilities (on a national basis):
– “Hospitalized with symptoms” fell to 26,893 (-5.30%) compared to the figure released on April 9;
– “Intensive therapy” decreased by 18.56% (2,936);
– “Total hospitalized” decreased to 29,829 units (-6.80%).

Improvement phase also in Lombardy:
– “Hospitalized with symptoms” 11,356 (-3.73%) compared to the figure recorded on 9 April;
– “Intensive therapy” 1,032 (-16.50%);
– “Total hospitalized” 12,388 (-4.94%).

The data of 16 April on new positives in Lombardy stands at 941 units, an improvement compared to the average for the last week ( 1,210 units). At a national level they are still very high (3,786 positive as at 16 April).

COVID-19 – ITALY

COVID-19 – LOMBARDY

COVID-19 – ITALY CHART

COVID-19 – LOMBARDY CHART


COPPER 3 MONTH $ DAILY

As expected in the previous report, prices continued to react, breaking up the first intermediate resistance at $5000, reaching $5200. In this context, after initial adjustments, further recoveries towards the subsequent targets set in the $5300 and $5450 area are not excluded.

Also the copper in € continues the reaction, returning to area €4775. In this context it will be important to monitor the evolution of the courses in $ to obtain new indications of directionality. In fact, possible settling and subsequent reactions may send new positive signals for copper in € towards area €4850 and  €4900.

ATTENTION LEVELS

Level

Dollar ton

Euro ton

Selling Area 2 5300 4900
Selling Area 1 5250 4850

Current price

5222

4785

Buying Area 1 5150  4700
Buying Area 2 5100 4650


ALUMINIUM 3 MONTH $ DAILY

Primary aluminum has approached the target in the $1550 zone. The price reaction continues, albeit with little inertia. Keep under controll the $1550 area, because its breaking up targets in area $1600 in the first instance.

Rebound phase also for primary aluminium in €, now at €1375. It will be essential to observe the movement of the prices in $, as a possible rise could send good signals for the continuation of the rise of prices in € towards €1400 and €1450.

ATTENTION LEVELS

Level

Dollar ton

Euro ton

Selling Area 2 1600 1450
Selling Area 1 1550 1400

Current price

1517

1360

Buying Area 1 1450  1300
Buying Area 2 1400 1250

ZINC 3 MONTH $ DAILY

Zinc reacts from May 2016 lows in area $1800 to $1950 area. This is the resistance to be monitored, transit zone of the short term moving average. If it rises just above this level, the rebound may extend to subsequent targets in the $2000 area in the first instance.

The short-term trend is improving, with prices now settling in a range between €1800 and €1650. In the next few sessions, a possible rise in prices in $ may also send new positive signals for € prices. Keep under control the €1800 zone.

ATTENTION LEVELS

Level

Dollar ton

Euro ton

Selling Area 2 2000 1850
Selling Area 1 1950 1800

Current price

1947

1785

Buying Area 1 1820  1700
Buying Area 2 1800 1650

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