According to a report by the Shanghai JC Intelligence published this week, “if negotiations between the U.S. and China continue for another two months, U.S. manufacturers could miss the best opportunity to sell to China, with unsold soybeans added to the surplus stocks of the United States.
Soybean crops from Latin America could satisfy the total demand of the Chinese market with Brazil and Argentina in pole position.
The two Latin countries continue to bridge the gap given the absence of the United States in the last 16 months. In fact, high tariffs have seen U.S. soybean sales in China fall by 90% since 2017, largely replaced by Brazilian imports.
In addition, another very important market for China is the African one, where many small Chinese producers have increased their exports (imports from Nigeria and Ethiopia, for example, are very significant), in sectors ranging from auto parts to textiles, areas that have managed to compensate for the drop in sales in the United States.
In the textile sector, many export-oriented factories in Zhejiang have doubled or even tripled orders for the African market this year.
Surely the current Trade War is not only damaging the U.S. economy, but also the global economy, and is considered one of the causes of widespread fears of a new recession.