Still two weeks of weakness for the prince of metals that fluctuates in a price range of around $ 200 between $ 6000 and $ 5800.
As of November 21st, prices are once again approaching the main short- and medium-term support in the $ 5800 area, a level of fundamental importance in blocking further attempts to reduce prices.
Analyzing the chart component, from the beginning of September, prices are forming an ascending triangle (lower green growing line and upper horizontal green line). This price pattern suggests that over time, prices tend to compress towards the apex of the triangle, in a context of potential accumulation for the start of a decisive medium-term rebound.
In fact, even the evident positive divergence on a weekly basis of the MACD indicator suggests the potential slowdown of the valid descent from the 2018 highs.
In this context, the first bullish price confirmation, at least in the medium term, will be sent to the violation of the $ 6000 area, with subsequent targets in the area of ​​$ 6200 and $ 6400.
On the contrary, in the case of downward drilling of the fundamental support in the $ 5800 area, prices may further decline in the direction of the subsequent supports fixed in the $ 5600 zone with a potential return towards the lows of 2019-2017 to the $ 5500 level.

On the seasonality front of the last 30 years, at the statistical level, in the last week of November (from 11/21 to 11/30) the prices showed a strong strength, favoring a rebound. In fact it should be noted that in the chart “COPPER – Update November Seasonality” in the first 3 weeks the current prices (ACTUAL) have followed with great correlation the historical trend of the quotations (Historical).

CONCLUSION: The factors listed above and summarized below may favor a potential upward movement of prices with the necessary confirmation of the break up of the $6000 area.

  1. Proximity of the medium-term fundamental support to $ 5800 (transit area of the green uptrend line traced from the 2019 lows)
  2. Positive divergence of the MACD indicator
  3. Positive seasonal component in the last November sessions


COPPER – Update November Seasonality

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